In August, the Consumer Confidence Index reverses its direction of recovery after a significant period of growth.
From the spring of 2022 to the beginning of 2023, we observe a relative retention of low values in consumer expectations, most clearly expressed in the assessment of the development of the general economic situation in the country, followed by a positive dynamic of growth until the warmest month of 2023. – July.
In August, however, this dynamic was reversed, which was determined by lower assessments of the financial situation and pessimistic expectations for the development of the economic situation in the next 12 months.
This is largely related to the estimate of price dynamics (inflation) over the past 12 months to date, which peaked in March and, although declining thereafter, carries the main negative weight in the estimates.
Against the background of relatively high inflation (especially strongly expressed in the consumer price index), relatively high level of expectations for the unemployment rate and pessimism in expectations, estimates in the levels of realization of large purchases continue to rise smoothly, which is a long-term dynamic from the height of the pandemic in 2020
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LOGO Research calculates and analyzes the Consumer Confidence Index in Bulgaria by order of the European Commission from May 2020
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